Martingale and loss-chasing: what the maths says
The claim is that doubling your stake after every loss must eventually pay. We checked it with arithmetic on hypothetical numbers, not on any operator's data. Verdict: not confirmed. Doubling multiplies the money at risk, a stake cap can block it, and the margin in each price is unchanged. All figures below are examples in Canadian dollars.
Checked by the editorial team on
- 4 min read
- 9 sections
- 2 tables
- 5 FAQ
The claim
The Martingale plan says: bet $10, and after each loss double the stake. When a bet finally wins, you are $10 ahead of where you started.
The arithmetic of that statement is correct. The problem is what it asks of your bankroll and of the operator's limits.
Verdict: not confirmed, because the plan raises the amount at risk without changing the price of any bet.
Six losses in a row, worked through
Example (not an offer): a $10 first stake at even money (decimal 2.00), doubling after each loss.
| Bet number | Stake | Total staked so far |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | $10 | $10 |
| 2 | $20 | $30 |
| 3 | $40 | $70 |
| 4 | $80 | $150 |
| 5 | $160 | $310 |
| 6 | $320 | $630 |
| 7 (needed to recover) | $640 | $1,270 |
After six losses you have lost $630. The seventh bet must be $640. If it wins at 2.00 it returns $1,280, which leaves you $10 ahead of the $1,270 staked.
Risking $1,270 to gain $10 is the whole trade.
The stake cap
Example (not an offer): suppose a market had a maximum stake of $500. This figure is hypothetical and is not any operator's limit.
With that cap, the $640 bet cannot be placed. The $630 already lost stays lost.
We have not yet recorded the published maximum bets of three or more operators. When we do, they will go in the table below with the terms URL and reading date.
| Operator | Maximum bet | Terms URL | Date read |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | Not checked | Not checked | Not checked |
| Second operator | Not checked | Not checked | Not checked |
| Third operator | Not checked | Not checked | Not checked |
What happens to the expected result
Take a bet at American odds of -110, which is decimal 1.91. Even if you win exactly half your bets, each dollar staked loses about 4.5 cents on average.
Doubling does not change that rate. It raises the number of dollars staked, so the expected loss rises with it.
How often does a long losing run appear? With a 50% chance of winning each bet, a given run of six bets is all losses 1.6% of the time.
Across 100 bets, the chance of at least one such run is about 55%.
Verdict: the maths gives no way to turn a negative expected result into a positive one.
Chasing losses without a formula
Raising stakes after a loss is a common reaction, and it is a warning sign, not a plan. Betting should not be used to win back money or to relieve stress.
If you notice it, set a limit or take a break. Limits, breaks and self-exclusion, step by step shows the options. In Ontario, ConnexOntario takes calls on 1-866-531-2600 or texts on 247247. In British Columbia, call Gambling Support BC on 1-888-795-6111.
How we checked
- We built the stake table with one rule: double after each loss, first stake $10.
- We computed the run probabilities from the chance of winning each bet, treated as separate events.
- We took the help-line numbers from the official provincial pages named in our reference notes.
- We did not use any operator's account or data.
Sources
- Our own calculation, labelled as an example. The odds conversions follow the formulas on Odds converter.
- ConnexOntario and Gambling Support BC: official pages, numbers as listed above.
- Operator maximum bets: to be read from operator terms and dated.
What changed
- : page created with the worked example; operator maximum bets not yet recorded.
Before you bet
19+ in Ontario and British Columbia; 18+ in Alberta, Manitoba and Québec. Gambling involves risk. Play responsibly. Need help? See help lines by province.
FAQ
What is the Martingale system?
It is a staking plan in which you double the stake after each loss, so that one win recovers all earlier losses plus the first stake. It changes how much you risk, not the odds of any single bet.
Does doubling after a loss change the expected result?
No. Each bet keeps the same price and the same margin. Doubling raises the total amount staked, so the expected loss, which is a share of the amount staked, rises with it.
What happens when a maximum bet is reached?
The plan stops working at that point. In our example, a hypothetical cap of $500 blocks the seventh stake of $640. Real caps differ by operator and market, and we have not yet recorded any operator's published maximum.
Is chasing losses the same as Martingale?
Chasing losses means raising stakes or betting more often to win back money. Martingale is one rigid form of it. Both tie the next stake to the last result, and past results do not change the next bet's odds.
Where can I get help if I am chasing losses?
In Ontario, ConnexOntario takes calls on 1-866-531-2600 or texts on 247247. In British Columbia, Gambling Support BC answers on 1-888-795-6111. Both numbers come from the official pages.